当下偏见放大了宏观政策的家庭资产负债表渠道
Present Bias Amplifies the Household Balance-Sheet Channels of Macroeconomic Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Peter Maxted", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "David Laibson", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "Benjamin Moll", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们在一个异质性主体模型中研究货币政策与财政政策的效应，模型中家庭具有现时偏向的时间偏好和幼稚信念。该模型包含一种流动性资产和一种非流动性住房净值，家庭可将其用作借款抵押品。由于现时偏向显著提高了家庭的边际消费倾向（MPC），现时偏向增强了财政政策的效应。现时偏向也放大了货币政策的效应，但同时减缓了货币传导的速度。降息激励家庭进行套现再融资，这会成为针对高MPC家庭的定向流动性注入。现时偏向还引入了家庭拖延抵押贷款再融资的动机，从而减缓了这一货币渠道发挥作用的速度。
Abstract
Abstract We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households’ marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity injections to high-MPC households. Present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates.