结构变化、土地利用与城市扩张
Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Nicolas Coeurdacier", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Centre de Recherches Politiques de Sciences Po", "Centre Pour La Recherche Economique et ses Applications", "Centre for Economic Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Florian Oswald", "affiliation": ["Collegio Carlo Alberto", "Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris"]}, {"name": "Marc Teignier", "affiliation": ["The Hunterian", "Universitat de Barcelona"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 城市在结构转型过程中是如何增长的？为回答这一问题，我们构建了一个具有内生土地利用的多部门空间均衡模型：土地要么用于农业，要么用于住房。由于通勤摩擦而人口密集的城市用地，从农业用地中扩张而来。在生产率低下且生存需求较高的情况下，农地价格昂贵，家庭无力负担大面积住房，城市因此非常密集。生产率提高使要素从农业中重新配置出来，释放出土地用于城市扩张，并限制了土地价值的上涨——尽管收入和城市人口均有所增加。随着城市面积的增长速度快于城市人口增长速度，城市密度可以持续下降，正如长期数据所示。基于我们为法国汇编的180年历史数据校准的定量评估，解释了城市面积、人口密度和土地价值在时间和空间上共同演变的很大一部分。
Abstract
Abstract How do cities grow in the process of structural transformation? To answer this question, we develop a multi-sector spatial equilibrium model with endogenous land use: land is used either for agriculture or housing. Urban land, densely populated due to commuting frictions, expands out of agricultural land. With low productivity and high subsistence needs, farmland is expensive, households cannot afford large homes and cities are very dense. Increasing productivity reallocates factors away from agriculture, freeing up land for urban expansion and limiting the increase in land values despite higher income and urban population. With the area of cities growing faster than urban population, urban density can persistently decline, as in the data over a long period. The quantitative evaluation calibrated to historical data assembled for France over 180 years explains a large fraction of the joint evolution of urban areas, population density and land values across time and space.