贫民窟升级与长期城市发展: 来自印度尼西亚的证据
Slum Upgrading and Long-Run Urban Development: Evidence from Indonesia
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Mariaflavia Harari", "affiliation": ["California University of Pennsylvania"]}, {"name": "Maisy Wong", "affiliation": ["California University of Pennsylvania", "University of Pennsylvania"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：发展中国家面临大规模城市化，贫民窟改造是改善众多居民住房条件的一项流行政策。然而，以牺牲正规开发为代价保留贫民窟，可能引发土地错配的担忧。我们估计了1969—84年KIP项目的因果性长期影响，该项目为印度尼西亚雅加达25%土地上的500万居民提供了基本改造。我们收集了关于项目边界和2015年结果的高分辨率数据，并通过局部比较处理项目选择性偏误。平均而言，根据基于照片的贫民窟指数，如今的KIP地区土地价值更低、建筑更矮，且更为非正规。负面效应集中在中央商务区（CBD）5公里范围内。我们构建了一个空间均衡模型，以刻画KIP的福利含义。反事实分析表明，79%的福利效应源于取消中心地区的KIP，并强调了如何减轻对被迫迁移居民的损失。
Abstract
Abstract Developing countries face massive urbanization and slum upgrading is a popular policy to improve shelter for many. Yet, preserving slums at the expense of formal developments can raise concerns of misallocation of land. We estimate causal, long-term impacts of the 1969–84 KIP programme, which provided basic upgrades to 5 million residents covering 25% of land in Jakarta, Indonesia. We assemble high-resolution data on programme boundaries and 2015 outcomes and address programme selection bias through localized comparisons. On average, KIP areas today have lower land values, shorter buildings, and are more informal, per a photographs-based slum index. The negative effects are concentrated within 5 km of the CBD. We develop a spatial equilibrium model to characterize the welfare implications of KIP. Counterfactuals suggest that 79% of the welfare effects stem from removing KIP in the centre and highlight how to mitigate losses to displaced residents.