人类手中的算法风险评估
Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Megan T. Stevenson", "affiliation": ["University of Virginia"]}, {"name": "Jennifer L. Doleac", "affiliation": ["Arnold Ventures"]}]
中文摘要
我们评估了在量刑中采用算法风险评估的影响。我们发现，法官会根据风险评估改变量刑实践，但自由裁量权在调节其影响方面发挥了巨大作用。法官以系统性方式偏离与算法相关的建议，这表明其存在替代性目标。因此，风险评估并未在公共安全或降低监禁率方面带来可检测到的收益。通过模拟，我们表明，严格遵循与算法相关的量刑建议本会带来收益（减少监禁），但也会带来一些成本（青少年刑期增加）。（JEL D81, D91, H76, K41, K42）
Abstract
We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic risk assessments in sentencing. We find that judges changed sentencing practices in response to the risk assessment, but that discretion played a large role in mediating its impact. Judges deviated from the recommendations associated with the algorithm in systematic ways, suggestive of alternative objectives. As a result, risk assessment did not lead to detectable gains in terms of public safety or reduced incarceration rates. Using simulations, we show that strict adherence to the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm would have had benefits (less incarceration) but also some costs (increased sentences for youth). (JEL D81, D91, H76, K41, K42)