企业税上调后投资决策的下调修正
Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Sebastian Link", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München"]}, {"name": "Manuel Menkhoff", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Andreas Peichl", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München"]}, {"name": "Paul A. Schule", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
本文基于1,400余次地方税收变动，估计企业税上调对企业投资的因果效应。通过观察德国制造业企业代表性样本中的计划投资额与实际投资额，我们得以研究税收上调如何促使企业修正其投资决策。平均而言，税收上调后，投资低于此前计划的企业占比上升3个百分点；这一效应在经济衰退期间扩大一倍。（JEL D22, E32, G31, H25, H32, H71, L60）
Abstract
This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by 3 percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions. (JEL D22, E32, G31, H25, H32, H71, L60)