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向极化选民竞选:真实竞选活动中的情绪与信息

Campaigning to a Polarised Electorate: Emotions and Information in Real Election Campaigns
The Economic Journal · 2026 · [{"name": "Cesi Cruz", "affiliation": ["University of Michigan"]}, {"name": "Julien Labonne", "affiliation": ["University of Oxford"]}, {"name": "Francesco Trebbi", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}]

中文摘要

摘要 政治极化重塑了许多民主国家的选举竞争, 使传统的纲领型政党面临双重挑战: 既要找到让基于政策的竞选宣传引起选民共鸣的方法, 又不加剧党派分裂。我们与一个主流反对党合作, 在2019年菲律宾参议院选举期间开展了一项田野实验, 比较两种常见的竞选策略——直接的政策导向拉票与情感参与环节——以评估二者的选举效应及其对极化的影响。我们发现, 即使在极化情境中, 提供政策信息的面对面接触也能增加该党的得票。两种策略都增进了选民的了解; 重要的是, 两种策略均未在亲现任选民中引发反弹; 如果说有任何影响, 证据反而表明存在跨越党派的缓和效应。这些结果表明, 即使在高度极化的情境中, 主流政党也能有效传达政策, 而直接的政策参与与情感参与不必然加剧党派分歧。

Abstract

Abstract Political polarisation has reshaped electoral competition in many democracies, presenting traditional programmatic political parties with a dual challenge: finding ways to make policy-based campaigning resonate with voters without exacerbating partisan divisions. We partner with a mainstream opposition party to implement a field experiment during the 2019 Philippine Senatorial election to compare two common campaign strategies—direct policy-focused canvassing and an emotional engagement component—to assess both their electoral effects and their implications for polarisation. We find that, even in polarised contexts, in-person engagement providing policy information increases votes for the party. Both strategies increase learning, and importantly, neither strategy produces backlash among pro-incumbent voters; if anything, evidence suggests cross-cutting moderating effects. These results suggest that mainstream parties can communicate policy effectively even in highly polarised contexts, and that direct policy and emotional engagement need not exacerbate partisan divides.
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