进口关税上升，出口下降：当现代供应链遭遇旧式保护主义
Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Kyle Handley", "affiliation": ["University of California San Diego"]}, {"name": "Fariha Kamal", "affiliation": ["United States Census Bureau"]}, {"name": "Ryan Monarch", "affiliation": ["Syracuse University"]}]
中文摘要
我们从供应链关联的视角考察 2018–2019 年美国进口关税上调对美国出口的影响。利用 2016 年保密的企业-贸易关联数据，我们识别出那些进口了后来遭遇关税上调产品的出口商，据此构建产品层面的进口关税暴露度。我们发现，暴露程度最高的产品在 2018–2019 年出口较低，且这一效应在 2019 年最大。2019 年的出口下降相当于对美国出口征收了 2% 至 4% 的从价关税。（JEL F13, F14, F23, L14）
Abstract
We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. (JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)