押注房产：主观预期与市场选择
Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Nicolás Bottan", "affiliation": ["Cornell University"]}, {"name": "Ricardo Pérez-Truglia", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
房价预期在宏观经济学与金融学中具有核心作用，但关于其对市场选择影响的直接证据却十分有限。我们利用美国一项大规模、高赌注的实地实验提供因果证据：我们向57,910名已挂牌出售住房的房主寄送了关于房价趋势的信件，信件中包含随机化信息，从而在房价预期上产生了非欺骗性的外生变异。与经济理论一致，更高的预期降低了出售概率，且这一行为高度富有弹性：预期每提高1个百分点，会导致住房在12周内出售的概率下降2.63个百分点。(JEL C93, D83, D84, R31)
Abstract
Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on their effect on market choices. We provide causal evidence using a large-scale, high-stakes field experiment in the United States. We sent letters about home price trends to 57,910 homeowners who listed their homes. These letters contained randomized information creating nondeceptive, exogenous variation in home price expectations. Consistent with economic theory, higher expectations reduced selling probability. Behavior was highly elastic: a 1 percentage point increase in expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks. (JEL C93, D83, D84, R31)