残疾福利重新评估的就业效应

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Anikó Bíró", "affiliation": ["Eötvös Loránd University", "ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies"]}, {"name": "Cecília Hornok", "affiliation": ["Eötvös Loránd University", "Kiel Institute for the World Economy", "ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies", "Clinical Research Center Kiel"]}, {"name": "Judit Krekó", "affiliation": ["Eötvös Loránd University", "Institute for Political Sciences", "ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies", "Budapest Institute"]}, {"name": "Dániel Prinz", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Ágota Scharle", "affiliation": ["Institute for Political Sciences", "Budapest Institute"]}]

中文摘要

我们研究匈牙利对残疾保险受益人健康与劳动能力进行大规模重新评估的后果。利用重新评估中的生日与健康截断点，我们估计了就业对残疾福利丧失威胁以及福利实际终止或减少的反应。我们发现，由于福利被取消的威胁，许多受益人在重新评估宣布之后、实际实施之前便停止了工作。另一组受益人失去了福利，并显著增加了其劳动供给。总体而言，重新评估对就业和收入产生了负向的短期影响和中性的中期影响。我们的结果表明，对福利丧失威胁的非预期反应作为一种替代效应发挥作用，即使在不存在约束性的正式收入限制的情况下也可能降低劳动供给，因此应在重新评估的设计中予以考虑。

Abstract

We study the consequences of a large-scale reassessment of the health and working capacity of disability insurance beneficiaries in Hungary. Leveraging birthday and health cutoffs in the reassessment, we estimate employment responses to the threat of disability benefit loss and the actual termination or reduction of benefits. We show that due to the threat of benefit removal, many beneficiaries stopped working after the reassessment was announced but before it took place. Another group of beneficiaries lost their benefits and increased their labor supply significantly. Overall, the reassessment had a negative short-term and neutral medium-term impact on employment and earnings. Our results suggest that unintended responses to the threat of benefit loss operate as a substitution effect that can reduce labor supply even without binding formal earnings limits, and thus should be considered in the design of reassessments.