碳定价的不平等成本：欧洲地区间的经济与政治效应
The Unequal Costs of Carbon Pricing: Economic and Political Effects Across European Regions
The Economic Journal · 2026 · [{"name": "Maximilian Konradt", "affiliation": ["Imperial College London"]}, {"name": "Giacomo Mangiante", "affiliation": ["Bank of Italy"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文考察了欧洲各地区碳定价的经济与政治效应。我们的主要发现是，一个识别良好的碳价格上涨虽然减少了排放，但也带来了经济和政治成本：更高的碳价格显著降低了产出和就业，同时提高了极端主义和民粹主义政党的得票份额，加剧了政治碎片化。与经济投票渠道一致，民意调查显示受访者的经济前景更加悲观，环境关切度下降。重要的是，经济和政治成本并非平等承担：碳密集型地区的产出降幅更大，向极端主义政党的转变也更为强烈。我们的研究结果凸显了采取配套政策以缓解碳定价带来的不平等经济影响及相关政治反弹的必要性。
Abstract
Abstract This paper examines the economic and political effects of carbon pricing across European regions. Our main finding is that a well-identified increase in carbon prices reduces emissions, but entails economic and political costs: higher carbon prices significantly reduce output and employment while increasing vote shares for extremist and populist parties, contributing to political fragmentation. Consistent with an economic voting channel, opinion surveys reveal a more pessimistic economic outlook and declining environmental concerns among respondents. Importantly, the economic and political costs are not borne equally: carbon-intensive regions experience a larger decline in output and see a stronger shift to extremist political parties. Our findings highlight the need for complementary policies to mitigate the unequal economic impacts of carbon pricing and the associated political backlash.