基于行政面板数据的福利对青年抑制效应的新证据
New Evidence on Welfare’s Disincentive for the Youth Using Administrative Panel Data
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · [{"name": "Olivier Bargain", "affiliation": ["Université de Bordeaux", "Bordeaux Population Health"]}, {"name": "Anders B. Jonassen", "affiliation": ["Rockwool Foundation"]}]
中文摘要
本文估计了2000年至2006年丹麦社会救助对青年就业的影响。对于无子女未婚个体，最高福利支付在25岁时增加了55%。利用行政面板数据，本文发现仅在低技能群体中存在显著的抑制效应：其就业率下降2%至3%，福利领取率增加10%至14%。三分之二的效应可归因于从工作转向福利，三分之一可归因于劳动力市场进入减少。沿收入分布的异质性估计显示，就业反应集中在收入极低的群体。本文未发现犯罪活动存在年龄断点的证据。
Abstract
Abstract We estimate the impact of social assistance on youth employment in Denmark, 2000 to 2006. For childless unmarried individuals, maximum welfare payments increased by 55% at age 25. Using administrative panel data, we find a significant disincentive effect among the low-skilled only, for whom employment fell by 2% to 3% and benefit take-up increased by 10% to 14%. Two-thirds of the effect is attributable to transitions from work to welfare and one-third to reduced labor market entry. Heterogeneous estimates along the earnings distribution show that employment responses are concentrated at very low earnings. We find no evidence of an age discontinuity in criminal activities.