经济困境与选举后果：来自阿巴拉契亚地区的证据
Economic Distress and Electoral Consequences: Evidence from Appalachia
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · [{"name": "Daniel Firoozi", "affiliation": ["Claremont McKenna College", "University of California, Irvine"]}]
中文摘要
关于不平等的信息可以在实验室和调查实验中改变政治态度。我利用阿巴拉契亚地区委员会的数据和断点回归设计，检验关于当地贫困的显著信息能否在实地环境中影响选民行为。我发现，当最贫困的十分位县被标记为“经济困境”时，民主党在随后选举中的总统和众议院普选票得票份额上升。我提供了提示性证据，表明这一结果与地方新闻报道有关，而非与支出或其他结果有关。
Abstract
Abstract Information about inequality can change political attitudes in lab and survey experiments. I use data from the Appalachian Regional Commission and a regression discontinuity design to test whether salient information about local poverty can impact voter behavior in a field setting. I find that when the poorest decile of counties is labeled “economically distressed,” the Democratic share of the Presidential and House popular vote rises in subsequent elections. I present suggestive evidence linking this result to local news coverage, rather than spending or other outcomes.