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财政乘数与金融危机

Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2022 · [{"name": "Miguel Faria-e-Castro", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"]}]

中文摘要

我研究了美国应对大衰退的财政政策反应的效应,兼顾标准财政工具与金融部门干预。一个针对美国经济校准的非线性模型使我能够考察不同财政政策的状态依赖效应。我将该模型与财政政策反应的相关数据相结合,发现若无此项政策反应,消费下降幅度本将扩大三分之一,累计损失达7.18%。转移支付与银行资本重组通过家庭与银行资产负债表之间联系所产生的新传导渠道,带来了最大的财政乘数。

Abstract

Abstract I study the effects of the U.S. fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting for both standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the United States allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been one-third larger in the absence of that response, for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages between household and bank balance sheets.
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