登月计划：公共研发与增长
Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Shawn Kantor", "affiliation": ["Florida Department of State"]}, {"name": "Alexander Whalley", "affiliation": ["University of Calgary"]}]
中文摘要
我们通过分析冷战时期太空竞赛的新数据，估计了公共研发对制造业增长的长期效应。我们提出了一种新颖的实证策略，利用美苏在太空技术领域的竞争来分离出意外获得的研发支出。研究结果表明，由NASA承包商实施的公共研发提高了太空相关部门的制造业增加值、就业和资本积累。尽管迁移反应的作用不容忽视，但其不足以在地方效应与全国效应之间造成差异。标志性的登月研发计划对地方和全国太空相关部门而言，其经济效应都较为有限。(JEL E22, H54, L60, N12, N42, N62, O47)
Abstract
We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War–era space race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to generate a wedge between local and national effects. The iconic moonshot R&D program had only modest economic effects for both the local and national space-related sectors. (JEL E22, H54, L60, N12, N42, N62, O47)
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