微观与宏观劳动供给弹性：努力动态回报的作用
Micro versus Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Henrik Kleven", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Claus Thustrup Kreiner", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Kristian Larsen", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen"]}, {"name": "Jakob Egholt Søgaard", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究在存在努力动态回报的情况下，收入对税收的长期反应。首先，我们构建了一个包含努力动态回报的收入决定理论模型。在该模型中，收入反应存在滞后，并由工作转换所中介。其次，利用丹麦的行政数据，我们验证了模型关于生命周期中收入和工作时间模式的预测。第三，我们提供了长期收入弹性的准实验分析。在我们模型的指导下，实证策略利用了工作转换者之间的变异。我们发现，长期弹性约为0.5，明显大于约0.2的短期弹性。(JEL D31, H24, H31, J22, J31, J62)
Abstract
We investigate long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort. First, we develop a theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic returns to effort. In this model, earnings responses are delayed and mediated by job switches. Second, using administrative data from Denmark, we verify our model's predictions about earnings and hours-worked patterns over the life cycle. Third, we provide a quasi-experimental analysis of long-run earnings elasticities. Informed by our model, the empirical strategy exploits variation among job switchers. We find that the long-run elasticity is around 0.5, considerably larger than the short-run elasticity of roughly 0.2. (JEL D31, H24, H31, J22, J31, J62)
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