监禁对就业、收入与纳税申报的影响

Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Andrew Garin", "affiliation": ["Carnegie Mellon University"]}, {"name": "Dmitri Koustas", "affiliation": ["Chicago Department of Public Health", "University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Carl McPherson", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "Samuel Norris", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia"]}, {"name": "Matthew Pecenco", "affiliation": ["John Brown University"]}, {"name": "Evan K. Rose", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Yotam Shem-Tov", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jeffrey Weaver", "affiliation": ["University of Southern California"]}]

中文摘要

我们利用两种准实验研究设计——量刑指南中的断点和法官的随机分配——研究了监禁对北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州工资、自雇以及税收和转移支付的影响。在这两个州，监禁均会导致个人在服刑期间经济活动出现短期下降。因此，一年的刑期会使五年内的累计收入减少13%。然而，超过五年后，两个州均没有证据表明就业、工资收入或自雇水平较低，在无既往监禁史的被告中同样如此。这些结果表明，上游因素——例如其他类型的刑事司法接触，或既有的劳动力市场脱节——更可能是曾被监禁者收入较低的原因；据我们估计，如果这些人免于监禁，其平均年收入也仅为5,000美元。

Abstract

We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5,000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.