利用单调性假设界定劝说效应：重新评估电视辩论的影响
Bounding the Effect of Persuasion with Monotonicity Assumptions: Reassessing the Impact of TV Debates
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2026 · [{"name": "Sung Jae Jun", "affiliation": ["Pennsylvania State University"]}, {"name": "Sokbae Lee", "affiliation": ["Columbia University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：总统候选人之间的电视辩论常被视为说服性传播的典范。然而，Le Pennec 和 Pons（2023）的最新证据表明，电视辩论对选民的影响可能并不像普遍看法所认为的那样强。我们从说服率（persuasion rate）的视角重新审视他们的发现，并引入一个稳健框架，该框架不要求外生处理、平行趋势或可信的工具变量。相反，我们利用合理的单调性假设对说服率及相关参数进行部分识别。我们的结果再次确认，电视辩论说服效应的精确上界（sharp upper bounds）仍然较为有限。
Abstract
Abstract Televised debates between presidential candidates are often regarded as the exemplar of persuasive communication. Yet, recent evidence from Le Pennec and Pons (2023) indicates that they may not sway voters as strongly as popular belief suggests. We revisit their findings through the lens of the persuasion rate and introduce a robust framework that does not require exogenous treatment, parallel trends, or credible instruments. Instead, we leverage plausible monotonicity assumptions to partially identify the persuasion rate and related parameters. Our results reaffirm that the sharp upper bounds on the persuasive effects of TV debates remain modest.