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知识探索

A Quest for Knowledge
Econometrica · 2025 · Christoph Carnehl、Johannes Schneider

中文摘要

更新颖的研究是否总是更可取?我们构建了一个模型,其中知识塑造社会的政策,并引导对发现的探索。研究者选择一个研究问题,并决定研究该问题的强度。问题的新颖性同时决定了发现其答案的价值与难度。我们表明,发现的收益在新颖性上是非单调的。知识随时间推移以内生方式逐步扩展。通过一种动态外部性,登月式研究——即研究那些比短视最优选择更新颖的问题——能够改善知识的演进。登月式研究会引发研究周期,在此周期中,后续研究者将该登月式研究与既有知识联系起来。

Abstract

Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step‐by‐step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.
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