长期失业的性质：可预测性、异质性与选择
The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity, and Selection
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · [{"name": "Andreas Mueller", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Johannes Spinnewijn", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文利用瑞典丰富的行政数据，研究长期失业（LTU）的可预测性。我们确认个体之间在LTU风险上存在显著异质性：分别利用广泛的可观测预测变量和多段失业期结果，刻画了可观测异质性与不可观测异质性。我们运用该预测算法，研究失业期间以及经济周期中就业获得动态。选择效应可以解释失业期间平均就业获得率下降的大部分，但对其周期性变化的解释力很小。我们还发现，失业期间的就业获得轨迹存在相当大的异质性，但这种异质性在经济周期维度上并不存在。
Abstract
This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell but not over the business cycle.