选举更替
Electoral Turnovers
Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · [{"name": "Benjamin Marx", "affiliation": ["Boston University", "Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Vincent Pons", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Harvard University"]}, {"name": "Vincent Rollet", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
摘要：在多数全国性选举中，选民面临延续与变革之间的关键选择。当现任候选人或政党未能赢得连任时，就会发生选举更替。为理解更替如何影响国家层面的结果，我们研究了1946年至2018年间全球举行的所有总统选举和议会选举。我们记录了选举更替发生频率随时间的变化，并估计了其对经济绩效、人类发展和民主质量的影响。利用跨国的势均力敌选举断点回归设计，我们发现选举更替改善了多项国家绩效指标。为解释这些积极效应，我们探讨了选举更替如何影响领导人特征、塑造政策决策、降低民众感知到的腐败程度，并促进问责制。
Abstract
Abstract In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.