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1932—1933年乌克兰饥荒死亡率的成因

The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932–33
Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · Andreĭ Markevich、Natalya Naumenko、Nancy Qian

中文摘要

我们构建了一套新的战间期苏联面板数据集,用于研究1932—1933年乌克兰饥荒死亡率(Holodomor,大饥荒)的成因,并记录了若干事实:(1)乌克兰在1932年生产的粮食足以避免本地发生饥荒;(2)1933年苏联的死亡率随饥荒前各地区乌克兰族人口占比的上升而上升;(3)且与各地区的粮食生产率无关;(4)这一模式甚至在乌克兰以外地区同样存在;(5)迁徙限制加剧了死亡率;(6)各地区实际和计划的粮食征购量均随乌克兰族人口占比上升而增加,而实际和计划的粮食留存量(产量减去征购量)则随该占比上升而减少。上述结果表明,苏联政策中的反乌克兰偏见是乌克兰饥荒死亡率居高不下的原因之一,且这种偏见在整个苏联范围内系统性地针对乌克兰族人。

Abstract

Abstract We construct a novel panel dataset for interwar Soviet Union to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932–3 and document several facts: (1) Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine; (2) 1933 mortality in the Soviet Union was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and (3) was unrelated to food productivity across regions; (4) this pattern exists even outside of Ukraine; (5) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; (6) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing and actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. The results imply that anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy contributed to high Ukrainian famine mortality, and that this bias systematically targeted ethnic Ukrainians across the Soviet Union.
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