信贷约束的劳动力市场效应：来自一项自然实验的证据

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Anil Kumar", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas"]}, {"name": "Che-Yuan Liang", "affiliation": ["Uppsala University"]}]

中文摘要

我们利用得克萨斯州1997年和2003年的宪法修正案作为自然实验，估计信贷获取便利化对劳动力市场的影响；这些修正案允许将房屋净值贷款和信贷额度用于非住房目的。利用州级数据与微观数据，我们发现，在1997年至2007年期间，住房信贷获取的便利化导致劳动参与率显著降低。我们的发现对于基于机器学习见解改进的合成控制方法表现出高度的稳健性。我们的研究表明，信贷获取便利化对劳动力市场的负面影响，对于评估其对整体增长的刺激作用至关重要。 (JEL C45, G21, G51, J16, J22)

Abstract

We exploit the 1997 and 2003 constitutional amendments in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for nonhousing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1997 and 2007. Our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. Our research shows that negative labor market effects of easier credit access are important for assessing its stimulative impact on overall growth. (JEL C45, G21, G51, J16, J22)