反倾销关税的就业后果：来自巴西的经验
The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2026 · [{"name": "Gustavo de Souza", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Haishi Li", "affiliation": ["University of Hong Kong"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 进口关税如何影响就业？我们构建了一种实证策略, 采用双重差分方法识别关税的效应, 将导致征收反倾销 (AD) 关税的反倾销调查与未导致征收反倾销关税的调查进行比较。我们发现, 反倾销关税减少了进口, 并增加了受保护部门的就业。此外, 下游企业的就业下降, 而上游企业未受影响, 因为受保护部门从国外采购投入品。通过一个模型量化总体效应, 我们发现巴西的反倾销政策使就业增加了 0.06%, 同时带来 2.4% 的福利损失。
Abstract
Abstract How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using a difference-in-differences strategy, comparing antidumping (AD) investigations resulting in AD tariffs to those not resulting in AD tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, employment in downstream firms decreases, while upstream firms are unaffected because the protected sector sources inputs abroad. Using a model to quantify the aggregate effects, we find that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06% at a welfare loss of 2.4%.