市政预算对收入冲击的动态响应
The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Ines Helm", "affiliation": ["Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München"]}, {"name": "Jan Stuhler", "affiliation": ["Universidad Carlos III de Madrid"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究政府间拨款引发的财政与税收响应，利用德国财政均等化制度中因人口普查修订人口数据而触发的准实验变异。市政预算并非即时调整：支出和投资在五年内逐步适应收入增加，而对收入减少的调整则更为迅速。然而，长期响应是对称的。税收响应尤其缓慢，持续超过十年。因此，诸如“粘蝇纸效应”等著名的经验异常现象，可能反映的是一种短期现象，而长期财政行为则更符合财政联邦主义的标准理论。(JEL E62, H71, H72, H77, R51)
Abstract
We study the fiscal and tax response to intergovernmental grants, exploiting quasi-experimental variation within Germany's fiscal equalization scheme triggered by census revisions of population counts. Municipal budgets do not adjust instantly. Instead, spending and investments adapt within five years to revenue gains, while the adjustment to losses is more rapid. Yet the long-run response is symmetric. The tax response is particularly slow, stretching over more than a decade. Well-known empirical anomalies such as the so-called flypaper effect may thus reflect a short-run phenomenon, while long-run fiscal behavior appears more consistent with standard theories of fiscal federalism. (JEL E62, H71, H72, H77, R51)