福利削减对儿童和青少年的非预期后果
Unintended Consequences of Welfare Cuts on Children and Adolescents
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Christian Dustmann", "affiliation": ["Rockwool Foundation", "University College London"]}, {"name": "Rasmus Landersø", "affiliation": ["Rockwool Foundation"]}, {"name": "Lars Højsgaard Andersen", "affiliation": ["Rockwool Foundation"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究一次大规模福利削减对受影响家庭中儿童的影响。该福利削减针对在丹麦获得居留权的成年难民，使其在最初五年内的可支配收入平均减少30%。我们发现，在学前和学龄阶段暴露于福利削减的儿童，平均绩点（GPA）更低，福祉与整体教育水平下降，成年后的就业率和收入也更低。在暴露时处于青春期的儿童，其暴力犯罪与财产犯罪的定罪概率大幅上升。(JEL I26, I31, I38, J13, J15, J31, K42)
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of a large welfare benefit reduction on the children in the affected families. The welfare cut targeted adult refugees who received residency in Denmark, and it reduced their disposable income by 30 percent on average over the first five years. We show that children exposed to the welfare cut during preschool and school-age obtained lower GPAs, experienced reduced well-being and overall education levels, and suffered lower employment and earnings as adults. Children in their teens at exposure faced large increases in conviction probabilities for violent and property crimes. (JEL I26, I31, I38, J13, J15, J31, K42)