犯罪的预期回报与犯罪地点
Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Nils Braakmann", "affiliation": ["Newcastle University"]}, {"name": "Arnaud Chevalier", "affiliation": ["Royal Holloway University of London"]}, {"name": "Tanya Wilson", "affiliation": ["Adam Smith Institute", "University of Glasgow"]}]
中文摘要
我们首次提供证据，表明犯罪预期回报的变化会影响财产犯罪的地点。我们的识别策略依赖于英国普遍存在的一种看法，即南亚裔家庭在家中存放黄金首饰。国际黄金市场的价格波动外生地影响了入室盗窃这些家庭的预期收益。利用社区层面的犯罪面板数据和双重差分法，我们发现，与同一市镇内的其他社区相比，南亚裔社区的入室盗窃对金价变动更为敏感。我们利用社区和个人数据进行了各种检验，以排除其他解释。（JEL D12, D91, J15, K42, R23）
Abstract
We provide first evidence that variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that South Asian households store gold jewelry at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households. Using a neighborhood-level panel on crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighborhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighborhoods in the same municipality. We conduct various tests on neighborhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations. (JEL D12, D91, J15, K42, R23)