财政紧缩的政治成本
The Political Costs of Austerity
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · [{"name": "Ricardo Duque Gabriel", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of Bonn"]}, {"name": "Mathias Klein", "affiliation": ["Swedish National Bank"]}, {"name": "Ana Sofia Pessoa", "affiliation": ["University of Bonn"]}]
中文摘要
本文利用一个覆盖若干欧洲国家200多次选举的新型地区数据库，为财政整顿的政治后果提供新的经验证据。为识别地区公共支出的外生性削减，我们使用一种Bartik型工具变量，将地区对全国政府支出变化的敏感性与叙事法识别的全国财政整顿事件相结合。财政整顿导致极端政党得票率显著上升、选民投票率下降，并加剧政治碎片化。我们通过表明财政紧缩会通过降低GDP、就业、私人投资和工资而带来严重经济成本，凸显了不利经济发展与选民支持极端政党之间的密切关系。紧缩驱动的衰退通过加剧对政治环境的不信任，显著放大了经济下行的政治成本。
Abstract
Abstract Using a novel regional database covering over 200 elections in several European countries, this article provides new empirical evidence on the political consequences of fiscal consolidations. To identify exogenous reductions in regional public spending, we use a Bartik-type instrument that combines regional sensitivities to changes in national government expenditures with narrative national consolidation episodes. Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties’ vote share, lower voter turnout, and a rise in political fragmentation. We highlight the close relationship between detrimental economic developments and voters’ support for extreme parties by showing that austerity induces severe economic costs through lowering GDP, employment, private investment, and wages. Austerity-driven recessions amplify the political costs of economic downturns considerably by increasing distrust in the political environment.