铁路终点与城市规模
Road End Points and City Sizes
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · [{"name": "Bruno Barsanetti", "affiliation": ["Ministry of Economy and Finance", "Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我考察铁路建设时点对城市规模的长期影响。首先，我提出一个风格化模型，预测作为铁路终点持续时间更长的城镇会持续变得更大。随后，我在一组巴西铁路城镇样本中表明，作为终点的时间长度强烈预测城镇规模：城镇过去作为铁路终点的年份每增加一年，与其2010年城镇人口高出0.107个对数点相关。该模型的其他可检验含义以及一种工具变量方法进一步表明，这种关联反映的是一种因果效应。
Abstract
Abstract I examine the long-run effects of the timing of railroad construction on city sizes. I first present a stylized model that predicts that towns that are railroad end points for a longer period of time become persistently larger. I then show that, in a sample of Brazilian railroad towns, time as end point strongly predicts town size: each additional year that a town was a railroad end point in the past is associated with a town population 0.107 log points larger in 2010. Additional testable implications of the model and an instrumental variable approach suggest that such an association reflects a causal effect.