对减少化石燃料补贴的态度：来自12个中等收入国家的证据
Attitudes towards reducing fossil fuel subsidies: Evidence across 12 middle-income countries
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Christopher Hoy", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Yeon Soo Kim", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Minh Cong Nguyen", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Mariano Sosa", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Sailesh Tiwari", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}]
中文摘要
本研究通过对12个中等收入国家的37,000名受访者开展调查，考察哪些因素影响对减少化石燃料补贴的支持，以及哪些类型的信息会改变人们的看法。这些国家在2022年为化石燃料提供了超过7500亿美元的显性和隐性补贴。受访者被随机分配接收关于化石燃料补贴相对成本、其累退性，或其加剧气候变化和空气污染的信息，随后被询问在有无配套政策的情况下对改革的支持程度。这些处理，特别是关于环境损害的信息，提高了主要补贴汽油的国家以及自认为属于中产阶级的受访者对改革的支持。约30%的受访者支持单独减少化石燃料补贴，但如果实施配套政策，这一比例上升至95%以上。这些发现有助于政府了解如何为逐步淘汰化石燃料补贴建立公众支持。
Abstract
This study examines which factors influence support for reducing fossil fuel subsidies and what types of information shift people’s views through surveying 37,000 respondents across 12 middle-income countries that provided over US$750 billion in explicit and implicit subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022. Respondents were randomly allocated to receive information about the relative cost of fossil fuel subsidies, how they are regressive, or worsen climate change and air pollution. They were then asked about their support for reforms with and without accompanying policies. These treatments, particularly about environmental damage, increased support for reforms in countries that primarily subsidize gasoline and among respondents who perceive themselves to be middle class. Around 30 percent of respondents supported reducing fossil fuel subsidies in isolation, but this share increased to over 95 percent if accompanying policies were implemented. These findings help inform governments about how to build public support for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.