受限而留：移民限制、自然灾害与贫困
Confined to stay: Migration restrictions, natural disasters, and poverty
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Andrea Cinque", "affiliation": ["Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques"]}, {"name": "Esther Gehrke", "affiliation": ["Graduate School Experimental Plant Sciences", "Wageningen University & Research"]}, {"name": "Lennart Reiners", "affiliation": ["Asian Development Bank Institute"]}]
中文摘要
国际移民限制如何影响社区应对自然灾害的能力？我们将一项针对数百万希望迁往沙特阿拉伯的印度尼西亚人实施的出境禁令作为自然实验。我们的识别策略依赖于预先确定的移民网络，以及该禁令与自然灾害发生时点的外生性。利用涵盖印度尼西亚全部村庄的面板数据并采用三重差分方法，我们证明，禁令实施后，与沙特阿拉伯有较强事前移民联系的社区，在自然灾害发生后贫困上升幅度更大。这凸显了国际移民作为气候变化适应策略的重要性。
Abstract
How do restrictions to international migration affect communities’ ability to cope with natural disasters? We exploit the implementation of an emigration ban for millions of Indonesians wanting to migrate to Saudi Arabia as a natural experiment. Our identification strategy relies on pre-determined migration networks and on the exogenous timing of the ban and of natural disasters. Using a panel of the universe of Indonesian villages and a triple difference approach, we demonstrate that poverty increases in wake of natural disasters are higher in communities with strong ex-ante migration ties to Saudi Arabia after the ban was implemented. This highlights the importance of international migration as a climate-change adaptation strategy.