未成功反倾销调查对企业出口动态的寒蝉效应

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Ming Chen", "affiliation": ["Xiamen University"]}, {"name": "Wen Chen", "affiliation": ["Xiamen University"]}, {"name": "Ling Feng", "affiliation": ["Shanghai University of Finance and Economics"]}, {"name": "Zhiyuan Li", "affiliation": ["Shanghai University of Finance and Economics", "Shanghai University of International Business and Economics"]}, {"name": "Deborah L. Swenson", "affiliation": ["University of California, Davis"]}]

中文摘要

本文研究“未成功”反倾销调查的后果, 此类调查未能对外国出口商作出肯定性反倾销裁定或征收反倾销税。尽管失败的调查可能被视为无害, 但“未成功”调查仍可能加剧贸易政策不确定性, 因为被调查产品未来遭遇反倾销调查的概率会大幅上升。我们对2000年至2015年间美国“未成功”反倾销调查后中国企业出口动态的分析发现, 企业出口动态出现显著减弱: 在“未成功”被调查产品中, 新出口进入企业数量和在位出口企业退出数量均因美国反倾销调查而减少。这些反应的综合效应导致活跃出口商数量下降, 以及被调查产品出口额下降。鉴于近期关于企业出口动态的研究表明, 广延边际变化有助于提升出口企业生产率与消费者所享有的产品质量, 认为“未成功”反倾销调查无害的观点因而受到质疑。

Abstract

This paper studies the aftermath of “unsuccessful” antidumping investigations that failed to achieve positive antidumping findings or antidumping duties against foreign exporters. While failed investigations might be viewed as benign, “unsuccessful” investigations may nonetheless elevate trade policy uncertainty since investigated products face dramatically increased probabilities of future antidumping investigations. Our analysis of Chinese firm export dynamics following “unsuccessful” U.S. antidumping investigations between 2000 and 2015 uncovers strong reductions in firm export dynamics - counts of new export entry and incumbent exit in “unsuccessfully” investigated products are both diminished by U.S. antidumping investigations. The combined effects of these responses lead to drops in the number of active exporters, and declines in export values for the investigated products. Since recent work on firm export dynamics shows how extensive margin changes facilitate improvements in export firm productivity and the product quality enjoyed by consumers, a benign view of “unsuccessful” antidumping investigations is called into question.