补贴就业能否应对长期失业？来自北马其顿的实验证据
Can subsidized employment tackle long-term unemployment? Experimental evidence from North Macedonia
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Alex Armand", "affiliation": ["Institute for Fiscal Studies", "Universidade Nova de Lisboa"]}, {"name": "Pedro Carneiro", "affiliation": ["Institute for Fiscal Studies", "KITH (Norway)", "University College London"]}, {"name": "Federico Tagliati", "affiliation": ["Bank of Spain"]}, {"name": "Yiming Xia", "affiliation": ["Southwestern University of Finance and Economics"]}]
中文摘要
本研究通过实验方法评估临时工资补贴对北马其顿就业的影响。目标群体为参与一项就业项目的脆弱失业者，该项目向雇主提供补贴，覆盖雇佣第一年一半的工资支付及培训费用。申请者首先与职位空缺进行匹配，随后被随机选中参加与雇主的求职面试，由雇主决定是否按项目条件雇用他们。利用行政记录数据，我们发现，被选中参加面试使受访者在项目启动3.5年后在正规经济中就业的概率提高14个百分点，并使就业持续时间增加85%。
Abstract
This study experimentally assesses the effects of temporary wage subsidies on employment in North Macedonia. The target group consists of vulnerable unemployed individuals participating in an employment program that provides employers with a subsidy covering half of the wage payments during the first year of employment, as well as training expenses. Applicants are initially matched to job openings and then randomly selected for job interviews with employers, who decide whether to hire them under the program’s conditions. Using administrative records, we find that being selected for an interview results in a 14-percentage-point increase in the probability of being employed in the formal economy 3.5 years after the start of the program, and an 85% increase in employment duration.