Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Jawad Shah", "affiliation": ["Science Oxford", "Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs"]}]
中文摘要
我检验了增值税内置的第三方信息轨迹与电子申报相结合，在国家能力较低环境下遏制逃税的有效性。利用一项改革——该改革使用增值税轨迹之外的信息，并授权计算机化风险分析系统实时接受或拒绝税收抵免——我的双重差分估计显示，申报额下降了50%。基于企业异质性，反应幅度介于30%至90%之间。约10%的处理组企业为虚假企业，是为进行缺失贸易商欺诈而设立的。全国层面增值税净征收增加的下限估计为10%。我发现，交叉匹配、审计和追缴等传统增值税执法机制未能遏制发展中国家的逃税行为，但基于风险的实时执法系统是有效的。
• 实时计算机化审查对增值税征收有何影响？
• 基于风险的分析系统可使欺诈性申报减少50%。
• 全国层面增值税净征收增加的估计值为10%。
• 发展中国家可利用计算机化来克服有限的国家能力。
Abstract
I test the efficacy of VAT’s in-built third-party information trail, together with electronic filing, to deter tax evasion in a low state capacity environment. Using a reform which utilizes information beyond the VAT trail and authorizes a computerized risk analysis system to accept or reject tax credits in real time, my difference-in-differences estimates show that claims declined by 50%. Based on firm heterogeneity, the response ranges from 30%–90%. Approximately 10% of treated firms were fake, created for missing trader fraud. The lower bound estimate of increase in net VAT collection at the country level is 10%. I find that traditional VAT enforcement mechanisms of cross-matching, audit and recovery fail to deter evasion in developing countries but a risk-based real-time enforcement system is effective. • What is the impact of real time computerized scrutiny on VAT collection? • A risk-based analysis system can decrease fraudulent claims by 50%. • Country level estimate of net VAT collection increase is 10%. • Developing countries can use computerization to overcome limited state capacity.