两波死亡故事：美国的芬太尼过量与墨西哥的枪弹
A two-wave death story: fentanyl overdoses in the US, bullets in Mexico
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Iván López Cruz", "affiliation": ["Sabancı Üniversitesi"]}, {"name": "Gustavo Torrens", "affiliation": ["Indiana University"]}]
中文摘要
我们建立了 2013 年开始的美国芬太尼危机与墨西哥第二波涉毒暴力之间的联系。我们认为，来自美国的芬太尼需求促使以太平洋沿岸为基地的新兴墨西哥贩毒组织重新优化其贩运路线，从而引发新的冲突与暴力，这些冲突和暴力常常发生在几乎未受 2007 年墨西哥毒品战争所引发的第一波暴力影响的地区。利用墨西哥毒品战争和芬太尼需求对不同市镇产生的差异性影响，我们估计芬太尼导致每 10 万居民约增加 20 起凶杀案。
Abstract
We establish a link between the fentanyl crisis in the US starting in 2013 and a second wave of drug-related violence in Mexico. We argue that the demand for fentanyl from the US pushed emerging Pacific-based Mexican drug trafficking organizations to reoptimize their trafficking routes, leading to new clashes and violence, often in locations barely affected by the first wave of violence caused by the 2007 Mexican War on Drugs. Exploiting the differential impact that the Mexican War on Drugs and the demand of fentanyl had on different municipalities, we estimate that fentanyl caused about 20 additional homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.