最低工资上调会导致就业破坏吗？来自阿根廷断点回归设计的证据
Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Nicolás Abbate", "affiliation": ["Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas"]}, {"name": "Bruno Jiménez", "affiliation": ["Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas", "New York University"]}]
中文摘要
本研究通过分析正规就业的行政记录，考察了21世纪初阿根廷八次最低工资上调的影响。利用断点回归设计，我们比较了受最低工资上调影响的群体与略微超出其法律适用范围的控制组之间的离职率。研究结果表明，总体而言，这些最低工资上调对离职率没有显著影响。然而，2008年的上调导致离职率下降了4.8个百分点（19%），这对最低工资的负就业效应提出了质疑。总体而言，这些发现表明，在经济上行期，最低工资上调可能对就业破坏几乎没有或完全没有不利影响。
Abstract
In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction.