我们的邻居究竟知道多少？社区瞄准的局限
How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Carly Trachtman", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Yudistira Hendra Permana", "affiliation": ["Universitas Gadjah Mada"]}, {"name": "Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo", "affiliation": ["Universitas Gadjah Mada"]}]
中文摘要
发展中国家的社会救助项目通常依赖当地社区成员来识别潜在受益人。由于社区成员可能观察到邻居的福利状况，其报告可能比中央政策实施者通常能观察到的代理指标更能捕捉暂时性冲击。为检验这一点，我们在中爪哇开展了一项实验室风格的实验：参与者使用对暂时性冲击敏感度不同的基准，对其他社区成员的福利进行排序，并据此瞄准小额现金转移的对象。我们几乎没有发现证据表明社区掌握的福利信息能更好地反映暂时性冲击，并发现瞄准决策主要取决于人们对总体财富差异的感知。
Abstract
Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth.