洪水冲击、异质性风险暴露与中国住房市场动态
Flood shocks, heterogeneous risk exposure, and housing market dynamics in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Yu Zhao", "affiliation": ["Shandong University"]}, {"name": "Yi Yang", "affiliation": ["Shandong University", "Shandong Management University"]}, {"name": "Ning Zhang", "affiliation": ["Lander University"]}]
中文摘要
本文分析了洪水冲击对中国住房市场的经济后果。通过结合详细的住房交易记录与细粒度的地理空间-环境信息，我们记录了洪水在地方住房市场内部产生异质性影响的稳健证据。具体而言，低洼地区的交易价格和成交量下降，而高海拔地区的价格上升但成交量保持稳定。这些非对称反应主要归因于买方的风险规避选址行为，以及卖方挂牌房源地理构成的变化。此外，我们发现了溢出效应的证据：未被满足的本地需求流向了邻近的更安全市场。一项保守的福利估计表明，洪水引发的住房市场福利损失相当可观——是直接经济损失的18倍——且几乎完全由买方承担。我们的发现还凸显了政府干预在缓解灾后市场低效、促进福利空间分布更均衡方面的关键作用。
Abstract
This paper analyzes the economic consequences of flood shocks on housing markets in China. By combining detailed housing transaction records with granular geospatial-environmental information, we document robust evidence of heterogeneous impacts of flooding within local housing markets. Specifically, transaction prices and volumes decline in low-lying areas, while prices increase but volumes remain stable in high-elevation areas. These asymmetric responses are largely attributable to the risk-averse location choices of buyers and the shifts in the geographic composition of sellers’ listings. Furthermore, we find evidence of spillovers, with unmet local demand flowing into adjacent safer markets. A conservative welfare estimation indicates that flood-induced welfare losses from housing markets are considerable—18 times greater than the direct economic damages—and are borne almost entirely by buyers. Our findings also highlight the crucial role of government intervention in mitigating post-disaster market inefficiencies and facilitating a more balanced spatial distribution of welfare.