盯住坏人：评估监控摄像头对犯罪的影响
Keeping an eye on the villain: Assessing the impact of surveillance cameras on crime
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Hong Ma", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}, {"name": "Mingzhi Xu", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Wei You", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Jinmei Feng", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Wei You", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Jinmei Feng", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}]
中文摘要
本研究利用2014年至2019年间中国的新数据，估计大规模安装监控摄像头对犯罪的因果影响。利用当地摄像头制造商的既有布局作为摄像头部署强度的工具变量，我们发现，监控网络更密集的城市经历了显著更陡峭的犯罪下降。这种下降在公开可见的犯罪中更为明显。监控强化与更高的政府满意度和更强的安全感相关，而这两者又导致了工作时长的增加。粗略测算显示，预防一起犯罪的成本约为6,373美元，具有很高的成本效益。
Abstract
This study estimates the causal impact of the massive installation of surveillance cameras on crime, using novel data from China between 2014 and 2019. Leveraging the preexisting presence of local camera manufacturers as an instrument for camera deployment intensity, we find that cities with denser surveillance networks experienced significantly steeper declines in crime. The reduction is more pronounced for publicly visible crimes. Enhanced surveillance is linked to higher satisfaction with the government and a greater sense of security, which in turn leads to longer working hours. A back-of-envelope calculation shows that preventing a crime costs approximately $6,373, which is highly cost-effective.