经济资源对生育率的影响：来自彩票赢家行政数据的证据
The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners
Journal of Labor Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Yung-Yu Tsai", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Hsing-Wen Han", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Kuang‐Ta Lo", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Tzu‐Ting Yang", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文利用中彩票奖金带来的财富冲击，考察金融资源对生育的因果效应。我们使用覆盖台湾超过40万名彩票中奖者的大规模行政数据面板，并采用三重差分设计。分析显示，一笔可观的彩票中奖能够显著提高生育，其隐含的财富弹性约为0.06。此外，生育提高的主要渠道是促使此前无子女的个体生育第一胎。最后，我们的分析表明，总生育效应中约25%来自中奖后结婚率的上升。
Abstract
This paper utilizes wealth shocks from winning lottery prizes to examine the causal effect of financial resources on fertility. We employ extensive panels of administrative data encompassing over 0.4 million lottery winners in Taiwan and implement a triple-differences design. Our analyses reveal that a substantial lottery win can significantly increase fertility, the implied wealth elasticity of which is around 0.06. Moreover, the primary channel through which fertility increases is by prompting first births among previously childless individuals. Finally, our analysis reveals that approximately 25% of the total fertility effect stems from increased marriage rates following a lottery win.