守法移民：移民与美国本土出生者的监禁率差距，1870–2020年
Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap between Immigrants and the US-Born, 1870–2020
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Ran Abramitzky", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Leah Platt Boustan", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}, {"name": "Elisa Jácome", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Santiago Pérez", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Juan David Torres", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}]
中文摘要
我们提供了首个具有全国代表性的长期序列（1870–2020年），衡量移民与美国本土出生者的监禁率。作为一个群体，150年来移民的监禁率一直低于美国本土出生者。此外，相对于美国本土出生者，移民的监禁率自1960年以来有所下降：如今移民被监禁的可能性低60%（相对于美国本土出生白人则低30%）。这种相对下降出现在来自所有地区的移民中，且无法用可观测特征或移民政策的变化来解释。相反，这一下降是受教育程度较低的移民与其美国本土出生同类群体之间结果更广泛分化的一部分。（JEL：J15, K37, K42, N31, N32, N41, N42）
Abstract
We provide the first nationally representative long-run series (1870–2020) of incarceration rates for immigrants and the US-born. As a group, immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than the US-born for 150 years. Moreover, relative to the US-born, immigrants’ incarceration rates have declined since 1960: immigrants today are 60 percent less likely to be incarcerated (30 percent relative to US-born Whites). This relative decline occurred among immigrants from all regions and cannot be explained by changes in observable characteristics or immigration policy. Instead, the decline is part of a broader divergence of outcomes between less-educated immigrants and their US-born counterparts. (JEL J15, K37, K42, N31, N32, N41, N42)