刑事经济制裁的影响：基于调查和行政数据的多州分析
The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multistate Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Keith Finlay", "affiliation": ["United States Census Bureau"]}, {"name": "Matthew Gross", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Carl Lieberman", "affiliation": ["United States Census Bureau"]}, {"name": "Elizabeth Luh", "affiliation": ["United States Securities and Exchange Commission"]}, {"name": "Michael Mueller‐Smith", "affiliation": ["University of Michigan"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用美国刑事司法系统中的九个自然实验，在断点回归设计框架下估计经济制裁的影响，涵盖多样化的执法力度（17–6,000 美元）和制度环境。我们利用调查与行政数据，考察了一系列短期与长期结果，包括就业、再犯、家庭支出以及其他自报的福祉指标。我们发现了精确零效应的稳健证据，包括排除了年收入方面大于 −391 至 142 美元、以及年定罪次数方面大于 −0.001 至 0.01 的长期影响；尽管执法机制显著且具有异质性，却未见相应的缴款增加。(JEL G51, H76, J31, K14, K41, K42)
Abstract
We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the US criminal justice system, leveraging nine natural experiments in a regression discontinuity design framework across a diverse range of enforcement levels ($17–$6,000) and institutional environments. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short- and long-term outcomes, including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find robust evidence of precise null effects, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than −$391–$142 in annual earnings and −0.001–0.01 in annual convictions, with no corresponding payment increases despite salient and heterogeneous enforcement mechanisms. (JEL G51, H76, J31, K14, K41, K42)