面向发展中国家的出口导向型产业政策：是否存在挑选赢家的方法？

中文摘要

产业政策优先推动特定部门的增长。然而，关于实践中应如何选择目标部门，目前几乎没有共识，许多人认为政府无法挑选赢家。本文指出，政府能够也确实会识别出一些可贸易部门，在这些部门中，公共投入能够加速增长并带来经济收益。这些战略性部门包括：（1）生产率相对较高的部门；（2）生产率相对较低、但所需技术与本国现有技术相近、且市场快速增长、国际竞争有限的部门。由于发展中国家生产率较高的部门更少、技术积累也更少，目标选择对它们而言可能更具价值。出口促进机构是在协调公共投入以发展这些部门方面已被证明行之有效的制度。与保护主义相比，这种“产业政策”的替代路径成本更低，更不易被低生产率企业俘获，且为国际贸易协定规则所允许。许多国家的发展战略都采用了这一路径。

Abstract

Industrial policy prioritizes growth in specific sectors. Yet there is little agreement about how to target sectors in practice, and many argue that governments cannot pick winners. This essay observes that governments can and do identify tradable sectors where public inputs accelerate growth and generate economic benefits. These strategic sectors are: (1) those that are relatively more productive, and (2) those that are relatively less productive but require technology like the country’s existing technology and have rapidly growing markets and limited international competition. Since developing countries are productive in fewer sectors and have less technology, targeting can be more valuable for them. Export promotion agencies are institutions that have demonstrated effectiveness in coordinating public inputs to grow these sectors. Compared to protectionism, this alternative approach to ‘industrial policy’ is cheaper, less susceptible to capture by unproductive firms, and permissible under the rules of international trade agreements. Many countries’ development strategies adopt this approach.