Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries: Is There a Way to Pick Winners?
中文摘要
产业政策优先推动特定部门的增长。然而，对于实践中应如何确定目标部门，人们几乎未形成共识，许多人认为政府无法挑选赢家。本文指出，政府能够而且确实会识别出公共投入可加速其增长并产生经济效益的可贸易部门。这些战略性部门包括：（1）生产率相对较高的部门；（2）生产率相对较低，但所需技术与本国现有技术相近、市场增长迅速且国际竞争有限的部门。由于发展中国家具备生产率优势的部门较少，掌握的技术也较少，因此确定目标部门对其可能更有价值。出口促进机构是已被证明能够有效协调公共投入、以推动这些部门增长的制度安排。与保护主义相比，这种替代性的“产业政策”路径成本更低，更不易被低生产率企业俘获，并且为国际贸易协定规则所允许。许多国家的发展战略都采用了这一做法。
Abstract
Industrial policy prioritizes growth in specific sectors. Yet there is little agreement about how to target sectors in practice, and many argue that governments cannot pick winners. This essay observes that governments can and do identify tradable sectors where public inputs accelerate growth and generate economic benefits. These strategic sectors are: (1) those that are relatively more productive, and (2) those that are relatively less productive but require technology like the country’s existing technology and have rapidly growing markets and limited international competition. Since developing countries are productive in fewer sectors and have less technology, targeting can be more valuable for them. Export promotion agencies are institutions that have demonstrated effectiveness in coordinating public inputs to grow these sectors. Compared to protectionism, this alternative approach to ‘industrial policy’ is cheaper, less susceptible to capture by unproductive firms, and permissible under the rules of international trade agreements. Many countries’ development strategies adopt this approach.