中文摘要
Against the backdrop of intensifying technological competition intertwined with strategic rivalry among major powers, leveraging industrial policy to precisely support breakthroughs in bottleneck technologies that constrain industrial transformation and upgrading is of major strategic significance. After identifying bottleneck technologies in China's industrial innovation system and tracing their dynamic evolution, this study empirically examines, from the dual perspectives of production and innovation networks, the transmission mechanisms through which structural imbalances in upstream industries affect productivity and innovation in downstream industries. The results show that imbalances in the development of total factor productivity (TFP) across upstream industries significantly inhibit productivity growth in downstream industries, while innovation imbalances significantly impede improvements in both the quantity and quality of patents in citing industries. These inhibitory effects are stronger for industries with high network centrality, whereas industrial policies targeting bottleneck technologies can effectively mitigate the adverse impacts of upstream imbalances. Establishing an industrial policy framework centered on "dynamic monitoring, targeted support, and cross-chain coordination" can help strengthen the resilience of China's industrial and supply chains, enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system, and accelerate the development of China into a manufacturing powerhouse.
Abstract
在科技竞争与大国博弈相互交织的背景下，依托产业政策精准赋能制约产业转型升级的瓶颈技术突破具有重大战略意义。在识别中国产业创新体系中的瓶颈技术及其动态演变路径的基础上，可以从生产网络与创新网络双重视角，实证考察上游行业结构性失衡对下游行业生产率与创新的传导机制。研究发现，上游行业全要素生产率发展不平衡显著抑制了下游行业生产率提升，创新不平衡显著阻碍了引用行业专利数量和质量提升；处于高网络中心度的行业所受抑制效应更强，而针对瓶颈技术的产业政策能有效缓解上游失衡带来的负面冲击。构建以“动态监测—靶向支持—跨链协同”为核心的产业政策框架，有助于提升我国产业链供应链韧性与国家创新体系整体效能，加快制造强国建设。