生育政策调整与女性劳动供给

Journal of Human Resources · 2022 · [{"name": "Shenglong Liu", "affiliation": ["Institute of Contemporary History"]}, {"name": "Tianyu Jin", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}, {"name": "Meng Li", "affiliation": ["Shanghai Jiao Tong University"]}, {"name": "Shaojie Zhou", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}]

中文摘要

利用第六次人口普查的微观数据，我们基于广义Roy模型估计了生育对中国农村女性劳动供给的边际处理效应。研究发现，生育意愿下降放大了生育对女性劳动供给的负面影响，尤其是在受教育程度较高的女性中更为显著。在全面二孩政策背景下，政策相关处理效应表明，生育第二个孩子后，女性每周劳动供给下降7.5–12.3小时。我们的研究表明，在出台某些生育激励政策时，应将女性劳动供给纳入考虑。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> Using microdata from the sixth census, we estimate the marginal treatment effect of fertility on female labor supply in rural China based on the generalized Roy Model. We find that the decline in childbearing willingness magnifies negative impact of fertility on female labor supply, particularly for women with higher educational attainment. In the context of the universal two‐child policy, the policy‐relevant treatment effects show that weekly labor supply falls by 7.5–12.3 hours after having a second child. Our research implies that female labor supply should be taken into consideration when introducing certain fertility incentive policies.