免费避孕对生育率的可忽略影响：来自布基纳法索的实验证据
The Negligible Effect of Free Contraception on Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Pascaline Dupas", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}, {"name": "Seema Jayachandran", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}, {"name": "Adriana Lleras‐Muney", "affiliation": ["UCLA Health"]}, {"name": "Pauline Rossi", "affiliation": ["École Polytechnique", "Polytechnique Montréal"]}]
中文摘要
本文在布基纳法索农村地区对14,545户家庭开展了一项随机试验，以检验一个常被引用的假说：避孕可及性受限是西非高生育率的重要驱动因素。本文未发现支持这一假说的证据。获得三年免费现代避孕服务的女性并未表现出更低的生育率；即使是适度的效应，本文也可以将其排除。本文还交叉随机化了额外干预措施，以解决可能抑制免费避孕需求的低效率问题，具体涉及关于儿童死亡率和社会规范的错误认知。即使结合这些干预措施，免费避孕也未显著影响生育率。（JEL D12, J13, J16, J18, O12）
Abstract
We conducted a randomized trial among 14,545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to modern contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address inefficiencies that might depress demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate and social norms. Free contraception did not significantly influence fertility even in combination with these interventions. (JEL D12, J13, J16, J18, O12)