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经济增长与大企业的崛起

Economic Growth and the Rise of Large Firms
Econometrica · 2026 · Zhang Chen

中文摘要

我记录到,企业规模分布的右尾随着经济发展而系统性变厚。为解释这一事实,我构建了一个简约的创意搜索模型,其中总量增长与企业规模分布均由内生决定。该模型具有一条渐近平衡增长路径,在此路径上吉布拉定律(Gibrat's law)在每一时点都成立,且企业规模分布的右尾单调变厚并趋向齐普夫定律(Zipf's law)。该模型还表明,偏向大企业的政策可以通过更好地利用创意搜索所产生的扩散外部性来改善福利。

Abstract

I document that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically thickens with economic development. To rationalize this fact, I develop a parsimonious idea search model in which both aggregate growth and the firm size distribution are endogenously determined. The model features an asymptotic balanced growth path along which Gibrat's law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution thickens monotonically toward Zipf's law. The model also implies that policies favoring large firms can improve welfare by better utilizing the diffusion externalities arising from idea search.
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