瓦尔拉斯-鲍利讲座：广阔世界中的气候政策
Walras–Bowley Lecture: Climate Policy in the Wide World
Econometrica · 2026 · [{"name": "John Hassler", "affiliation": ["Stockholm University"]}, {"name": "Per Krusell", "affiliation": ["Stockholm University"]}, {"name": "Conny Olovsson", "affiliation": ["Swedish National Bank"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个具有极高地理分辨率的气候与经济动态综合评估模型。人口在国家内部可自由迁移，但不允许跨国迁移。模型参数化使用了大量数据，包括产出、人口、能源来源与使用的分布，以及气候变化造成的本地损害估计。这意味着变暖造成的损害存在非常大的地理差异。我们开展了三类政策实验。在第一类实验中，我们指出，适度且统一的碳税能显著限制全球变暖以及世界各地的损害。在第二类实验中，我们允许最贫困国家不征收碳税，而其他国家通过设定更高税率进行补偿；效率损失很大。在最后一类实验中，我们发现，无论绿色技术是否在全球范围内可用，仅靠其快速增长都是碳税的拙劣替代品。
Abstract
We construct a dynamic integrated assessment model of climate and the economy with very high geographic resolution. Migration is free within, but not allowed across, countries. The model parameterization uses a wealth of data, including the distribution of output, population, energy sources and use, and estimates of the local damages from climate change. It implies very large geographic dispersion in damages from warming. We conduct three kinds of policy experiments. In one, we note that a modest, uniform carbon tax limits global warming and damages around the world substantially. In a second experiment, we let the poorest countries not tax carbon, while the rest compensate by setting higher taxes; the efficiency losses are large. In a final experiment, we find that fast green technology growth alone is a poor substitute for carbon taxes, whether globally available or not.