新政青年就业计划的终身影响

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Anna Aizer", "affiliation": ["John Brown University"]}, {"name": "Nancy Early", "affiliation": ["United States Social Security Administration"]}, {"name": "Shari Eli", "affiliation": ["University of Toronto"]}, {"name": "Guido W. Imbens", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Keyoung Lee", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia"]}, {"name": "Adriana Lleras‐Muney", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}, {"name": "Alexander Strand", "affiliation": ["United States Social Security Administration"]}]

中文摘要

我们研究美国首个也是规模最大的青年就业与培训计划——平民保育团（CCC，1933—1942 年）的终身效应。我们将新近数字化的登记记录与人口普查、二战入伍、社会保障和死亡记录进行匹配。我们发现，在 CCC 服役时间更长改善了身高、健康状况、长寿、地理流动性和终身收入，但并未改善包括就业和工资在内的短期劳动力市场结果。我们采用多种方法处理 CCC 服役时长的潜在选择性问题，其中最重要的是两种新开发的控制函数方法，这些方法利用了 Job Corps（CCC 的现代版本）随机对照试验短期效应的无偏估计。我们的发现表明，对就业项目的短期和中期评估低估了其效应，因为它们未能捕捉终身效应，且往往忽视或低估了在较晚年龄阶段幅度增大的健康和长寿收益。

Abstract

We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States-the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933-1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employment and wages. We address potential selection into CCC duration using several approaches, most importantly two newly developed control-function approaches that leverage unbiased estimates of the short-term effects of a randomized controlled trial of Job Corps (the modern version of the CCC). Our findings suggest that short- and medium-term evaluations of employment programs underestimate effects because they fail to capture lifetime effects and often ignore or underestimate health and longevity benefits that increase in magnitude at later ages.