Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · Benjamin Lockwood、Hunt Allcott、Dmitry Taubinsky、Afras Sial
中文摘要
我们利用州营彩票中蕴含的自然实验和一项新的具有全国代表性的调查，对彩票需求中的风险偏好与行为偏误进行简约式估计和结构估计，并探讨其对最优彩票设计的含义。我们发现，销售额对头奖期望值的反应大于对价格的反应，但对二等奖的变化没有反应——这一模式与概率加权相符，却与标准参数化设定不符。调查结果显示，彩票支出随收入增加而小幅下降，且与衡量数理能力欠缺、统计推理能力不足的指标以及其他行为偏误代理指标高度相关，这些指标也随收入增加而下降。回归预测表明，若美国人不存在行为偏误，其彩票支出将减少43%，而其余彩票需求则源于期待效用或娱乐价值等其他因素。我们利用这些经验矩估计了一个社会最优彩票设计模型。在该模型中，当前的多州联合彩票设计提高了福利，但可能损害高额投注者的利益。
Abstract
Abstract We use natural experiments embedded in state-run lotteries and a new nationally representative survey to provide reduced-form and structural estimates of risk preferences and behavioural biases in lottery demand, and to explore the implications for optimal lottery design. We find that sales respond more to the expected value of the jackpot than to price but are unresponsive to variation in the second prize—a pattern that is consistent with probability weighting but is inconsistent with standard parameterizations. In the survey, we find that lottery spending decreases modestly with income and is strongly associated with measures of innumeracy, poor statistical reasoning, and other proxies for behavioural bias, which also decline with income. Regression predictions suggest that Americans would spend 43% less on lotteries if they were unbiased, while the remaining lottery demand is due to other factors such as anticipatory utility or entertainment value. We use these empirical moments to estimate a model of socially optimal lottery design. In the model, current multi-state lottery designs increase welfare but may harm heavy spenders.