中文摘要
本文研究与民主伙伴的经济一体化对民主的影响。我们构建了一个覆盖1960年至2015年的大型国家层面面板数据集，并利用航空运输相对于海运的改善，构造了一个经济一体化的时变工具变量。我们发现，与民主国家的经济一体化提高了各国的民主得分，而与非民主国家的经济一体化的影响则较为有限。当民主伙伴的民主历史更长、经济增长更快、公共品支出更多、与该国的文化更接近、出口商品质量更高时，这些效应更强。我们记录的效应由进口而非出口驱动，也由与以下民主伙伴的经济一体化驱动：这些伙伴在一国的制度密集型商品、文化商品和消费品贸易中，以及在涉及更多面对面互动且需要更高双边信任水平的商品贸易中，所占份额较大。这些模式与以下解释相一致：经济一体化通过传递民主制度具有可取性（无论这种可取性是实际存在的，还是人们所感知的）的信号，促进民主的传播。仅靠其他机制——包括人力资本积累和经济增长——无法解释我们的发现。
Abstract
Abstract In this paper, we study the effects of economic integration with democratic partners on democracy. We assemble a large country-level panel dataset from 1960 to 2015, and exploit improvements in air, relative to sea, transportation to derive a time-varying instrument for economic integration. We find that economic integration with democracies increases countries’ democracy scores, whereas the impact of economic integration with non-democracies is muted. Results are stronger when democratic partners have a longer history of democracy, grow faster, spend more on public goods, are culturally closer, and export higher quality goods. The effects we document are driven by imports, rather than exports, and by integration with democratic partners that account for a larger share of a country’s trade in institutionally intensive, cultural, and consumer goods, as well as in goods that involve more face-to-face interactions and entail higher levels of bilateral trust. These patterns are consistent with economic integration favouring the transmission of democracy by signalling the (actual or perceived) desirability of democratic institutions. Alternative mechanisms—including human capital accumulation and economic growth—cannot, alone, explain our findings.